The Regional Impacts of the US Incursions into Iraq

 

During the recent nine months (March-Dec., 2002), the Middle East (ME) region lived under the Shadow of battles and war smokes. There have been many scenarios and expectation of war nature and positions of various involved parties.

The United States new trends towards Iraq have spread a lot of fear in the region. It has almost paralyzed the economy, social development, and political development. It has confused the states planning systems as well as their improvement programs. Many investors have become reluctant to approve any new approach to the region where as the UN regional bodies got prepared to leave in case of this invasion to Iraq takes place.

Preliminary study of political map surrounding Iraq divides neighboring states into three groups;

Firstly, Iraq and Turkey, the stronger and more strategic important neighbor in the region.

Secondly, Jordan and Syria, the Arab neighbors of the most strategic and economic ties with Iraq.

Thirdly, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the only two Gulf countries bordering Iraq, and the most directly affected by any change in the political structure.

Recent Studies have warned of greater danger on man, animal and agricultural than the Iraqi regime itself. War Impacts have no limit and destroy whatever lies on the way.

There is such a fear that this new adventure will create wide spread of instability on different levels including economy, security and even political ones.

Although other great powers, such as France, China, Russia and other industrial countries, as Japan, Canada and Italy understand the dangers of the US trends, they have no strong opposition stands to prevent US execution of its military plans, owing to their close relations with Washington.

Neighbors of Iraq are also expressing their views of opposing the attack whilst they prepare them selves even to participate in some way or at least to support. All positions are just based on the analysis of Saddam fall and that the UN would issue a new resolution to legitimize such an action. It will be then as an international coalition that neighboring countries might decline to oppose.

Informed and acknowledgeable circles are afraid of aggressive Israeli attitudes under extreme rightists headed by Areil Sharon, who may commit mass massacres and forced transfer against Palestinians mounts to hundreds of thousands to Jordan.

Those dangerous variables under anew divided or destroyed Iraq, would lead to US controlled regime, where Israel would achieve great influence and the Palestinian issue might pay a heavy price.

The Iraqi other six neighboring countries may fall under American control and respond to its demands in decades to come. This might lead to regional instability, which its components and consequences are not yet clarified according to different scenarios.